2023's Nickels by the Numbers
Well, there goes a few bucks.
Pro Football Focus provides statistics for more than a few things that a curious fan could ask for; finding out that coverage grades were available for defenders targeted from the slot pre-snap alignment made the price of admission worth it for this hobby project.
Without giving away too many of the stats that they paywall, what I can give you is their general ranking. I sorted by all CBs and Safeties under the “Slot Coverage” passing statistic and set the cutoff for 45 targets. Meaning, that 50 passes had been thrown to their receiver or zone from the overhang/slot pre-snap alignment.
These stats include LBs and Edges and really muddy up the numbers. Since we know that those positions aren’t truly nickelbacks, I excluded them. Likewise, 45 felt like a nice, round cutoff number. It also ensures enough snaps that we’re excluding primarily outside corners that happened to have been in the slot. We’re interested in slot-first sorta dudes.
This left us with the following names. Keep in mind, these are in order ascending by targets, not ranked in terms of skill.
The List
#22 Kyle Hamilton and Trent McDuffie
At 6’4” and 220lbs, Kyle Hamilton is an imposing defender for Baltimore. Undoubtedly, the second year safety out of Notre Dame is a big reason why they made it to the AFC Championship this year. 61 tackles, 4 picks, 6 pass breakups, and a an allowed completion percentage of 55.5% from the slot. Those are monstrous numbers, and he’s a staple of that imposing Ravens defense for obvious reason.
The team that beat them, however, has Trent McDuffie, a 5’11” 193lbs speedster. He was last year’s first round pick for the Chiefs, and has been immediately productive for the elite Chiefs defense. A 73.3% completion percentage from the slot appears high, but he has the fourth fewest yards allowed from any slot defender with over 45 targets. He hasn’t recorded any picks this year, and only a single pass breakup. Seemingly, he has been capping anything vertical, forcing the QB to take small outs and stick routes against him.
#20 Michael Carter II and Isiah Oliver
At a 54.3% completion rate, and giving up the fewest yards for any DB with over 45 targets from the slot, the Jet’s Michael Carter II allowed the least production of any of the DBs on this list. Add on 4 pass breakups and 44 tackles, he had a season any Nickel could be proud of. The Jets defense is stout and aggressive. The 5’11” 184lbs DB is capable enough of filling the run, but it’s obvious that his coverage numbers are his real strength.
Isaiah Oliver, by comparison, allowed a class-worst 93.4% completion rate, giving up 304 yards in the process. This DB for San Francisco is taking a Super Bowl trip, which seems counterintuitive to some of the stats we’ve read above. However, he can get his 6’0” 210lbs frame moving at a 4.5s forty pace. He has 44 tackles, a pick, and 3 pass breakups. Likewise, his 59+ run defense grade is higher than most all the other nickels. There is certainly a philosophy question mark here.
#18: Ja’Sir Taylor and Troy Hill
Taylor, at 5’10” and 185lbs, is built to be a pure coverage guy. With 8 pass breakups, a pick, and 61.7% completion rate - that description fits the bill. With only 24 tackles, it’s clear that the Chargers want him covering fast receivers more than he fills in the run.
Troy Hill, the league veteran for the other Los Angeles team, isn’t too far off. 5 breakups, a pick, 37 tackles, and a completion rate of 70.2%. Both defenses were not the stars of their shows for either team. Both are small CBs with adequate-to-good coverage skills without much box utility. Hill is 5’11” 180lbs.
#17: Christian Izien
An undersized rookie at 5’8” and 198lbs, the listed safety filled many of the slot responsibilities for Tampa Bay this year. His testing numbers had above average shuttle times, great vertical scores, and an elite 40 yard dash at 4.38s in the combine.
He let up 3 TDs on the year, but did snag a couple of picks. I’ve got no research to back this up, but anecdotally I saw a lot of quarters and man-match from the Bucs in the pair of games I watched, which seems to match well with a twitchy, quick slot defender whose primary responsibility is to deny space against the spread. Christian allowed a 74.6% completion rate from the slot.
#16 Tre Herndon
5’11” and 190lbs, the veteran in Jacksonville gave up a 78.8% completion rate from the slot and failed to get a pick all year. With only 31 tackles on the year, and under 10 passes defended, the stats don’t portray a particularly great year.
Perhaps the 446 yards allowed flesh out more of the story. It seems that Tre was a weakness on the Jacksonville defense to be exploited.
#14 Myles Bryant and Kyler Gordon
Tied in this spot is Bryant of New England and Gordon of Chicago. Respectively the completion percentages are 77.7% and 70.3%. Coincidentally, both are former Huskies. Bryant being in his 4th year, and Gordon his second.
You would think that the size difference would tell a story of use. Bryant is smaller at 5’9” and 192lbs, with Gordon tipping the scales at 200lbs on his 6’0” frame. However, Gordon has more interceptions and pass breakups on the year, while Bryant finishes with 66 tackles. For a DB of his size, that is a large stat.
The differences can likely be explained in use and scheme. Belichick utilizes a lot of Apex alignments to keep his overhangs close to the box and isn’t afraid to pull his DBs into the run fit. It’s hard to say for Gordon, as the defensive situation for the Bears this season was in a lot of flux with new staff and an interim DC.
#12 Cor’Dale Flott and Dee Alford
At 6’1” and 175lbs, Flott is quite a lithe second year corner. Giving up only a 65.5% completion percentage, it’s easy to assume that he’s a pure coverage corner. I hadn’t watched him much this year, but I got to know the Giants defense in part due to my fandom of Deontae Banks (who I still think will be better than Witherspoon and Gonzalez by their third year). The Giants run a LOT of Cover 1 and Press Quarters. They like to leave their CBs on an island and dare a WR to beat them. Flott’s insanely fast hips and general stickiness work well for the NYG scheme.
With a 70.9% completion percentage, the 5’11” 175lbs Dee Alford is of a similar stature. He has one less pick but two more pass breakups than Flott, and did so in an overwhelmingly Cover 3 scheme that doesn’t often lend to a smaller CB in the slot. One has to wonder if Alford isn’t better suited for a defense more like the Giants.
#11 Brian Branch
The rookie sensation in Detroit certainly got a lot of eye-testing from me. I’m a Packers fan, which accounts for a twice-annual watch at a minimum, but he was also the subject of a lot of my research in the 2022 draft. Alabama produces very intelligent safeties, and Brian is among the most NFL ready that the Tide had produced recently.
A 64.9% completion percentage is great. At 6’0” and 203lbs, he’s got the size to play near the box (and does). Some were concerned with his speed at 4.58 from the combine, but with a Linebacker-esque 64 tackles to pair with 3 interception and 11 pass breakups, what doubt is there left to have? This guy rocks. He’s in a system that wanted him to be a Swiss-Army-Knife, and both coach and player are getting their wishes granted.
#10 Josh Metellus
At 5’11 and 207lbs, Metellus is listed as a Safety for obvious reasons. With a completion rate of 86.7% and only one pick, his coverage numbers are well below average. However, if you compare that to his 86 tackles, the philosophy of use with him comes into view. He had 396 snaps in the slot, but also 377 in the box. Metellus seems as much linebacker as DB. Considering the crazy blitz rate of the Vikings this year, that shouldn’t be too surprising. Of the players on this list, his 3 sacks are the most.
Interestingly, he also had 205 snaps at outside corner and 55 as a free safety. Minnesota really asks this guy to do it all.
#9 Roger McCReary
The 5’11 190lbs sophomore for the Titans gave up 72.8% of his targets, allowing 388 yards with 1 pick. He tallied 66 tackles this year. He gave up 3 TDs and 10 yards per reception. Initially, I thought the tackle number may be a result of being used more in the box, but only has 120 box naps versus 585 in the box. The tackle stat seems more a consequence of just giving up completions rather than filling the run.
#6 Kenny Moore II, Nate Hobbs, Taron Johnson
At 5’9” 190lbs, veteran Kenny gave up a 79.2% completion rate, but did pull in 3 interceptions with 2 pass breakups. Likewise, he tallied 79 tackles and had as many snaps in the box as he did at safety. Versatile and adequate in any given role, Moore II seems like he’s truly a great option for depth anywhere on the field for Indianapolis. He’s the only guy on this list with a PFF grades above 70 in both run defense and coverage.
Taron Johnson is a sizeable 5’11 and 192lbs in Buffalo. At a 74.1% completion rate and 79 tackles, you’d think his season would tell a similar story to Moore II, but he was near exclusively a slot player that gave up 8 yards per reception. At 708 snaps from the slot, he had one job to learn - and was very inconsistent game to game.
At 6’1” 195lbs, Nate Hobbs offers good size for the Raiders. His 79.2% completion rate can stand to improve. With one pick and four pass breakups, he’s average-at-best in most coverage stats. the 65 tackles coupled with the 9.3 yards per reception tells a similar story to McCreary - you get a lot of tackles when you give up completions.
#5 Jourdan Lewis
With Bland and Gilmore on the outsides, it makes sense that the 5’10 195lbs Lewis would get targeted a lot. He gave up 69.8% of his targets and pulled in a pick with 4 pass breakups. He lived nearly the whole season in the slot.
These numbers are average, maybe below average, but anecdotally I think it’s worth mentioning that he was likely the guy any offense chose to pick on when attacking the stellar Dallas defense. To weather the storm of being the weak-link DB and still give up less than 70% of your targets is likely something to be proud of.
#4 Ja’Quan McMillian
The dynamo from Denver came alive in the second half of the season. 61.5% completion rate, with 2 picks and 2 pass breakups. At 5’9” 183lbs, he’s a pure cover guy.
I live in Denver, so I saw him quite a lot. When the Defense decided to start playing good football in the back stretch of the season, Ja’Quan was a big reason why. However, he’s a pretty boom-or-bust guy. He’s either good for and 80+ cover grade, or giving up 2 TDs in the game. If he can even himself out, the second year guy could really, really be a staple.
#3 Mike Hilton
The 5’9” 184lbs DB from Cincinnati has been in the league for a while and is on his second team. This year he gave up 71% of his targets, but reeled in 2 picks and 4 pass breakups. He lived in the slot and added 66 tackles to the team total. He did give up 8.8 yards per reception, however. Seems like we saw this story twice already with Taron Johnson and Roger McCreary. Small guys with lots of tackles are usually getting them by wrangling down the passes they gave up.
#2 Keisian Nixon
Oh boy. I’ve got this guy’s jersey.
Not because I really think he’s great, but because I made a declaration during a Packers game and I had to own up to it in the Power Sweep discord.
80.6% of his passes given up. 535 yards allowed, the second worst. He does have one game-sealing pick against Mahomes, and 4 pass breakups. But he gives up 9.9 yards per reception. Being 200lbs at 5’10” should help with some run fit, but Joe Barry banished him to the Slot forever and his run defense grade is a dismal 53.2 on the season.
I want to mention something about his tenacity, the culture he brings, and his kick returning ability - but would he be the only guy on this list with those traits? Obviously not.
I just gotta face it - he’s bad.
#1 Alonte Taylor
And here he is, the most thrown-at slot corner in the league in 2023. He gave up only 67.7% of his passes, but did so for 672 yards. By far, the most allowed yards of a nickel guy through the air.
At 5’10 199lbs, you’d hope he’d be good near to the box, but his run defense grade is 29.7, and he had the second highest snap count in the slot of anyone on this list. He’s big, but asked to do coverage specialist stuff. It’s obvious offenses are keying in on this and using it to their advantage. When he was a Tennessee Volunteer, he was a great downhill bruiser. I really am suspecting a misuse of personnel to acheive these numbers in New Orleans.
PHEW, WE MADE IT
What conclusions can we draw?
Really, none. This whole post is really just a way for me to organize my thoughts in a more objective manner. I have players that I’ve watched this year and formed opinions on, but I was doing so entirely through observation.
Injecting some measurables certainly is warranted. Next time, I’ll take these findings and make a ranking of who my top 10 nickel defenders of 2023 were. After that, we can use their traits to build our ‘perfect nickel player.’
With that prototype in mind, we’ll look towards the 2024 draft.